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Registros recuperados: 221 | |
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Planque, Benjamin; Mullon, Christian; Arneberg, Per; Eide, Arne; Fromentin, Jean-marc; Heymans, Johanna Jacomina; Hoel, Alf Håkon; Niiranen, Susa; Ottersen, Geir; Sandø, Anne Britt; Sommerkorn, Martin; Thébaud, Olivier; Thorvik, Thorbjørn. |
Anticipating future changes in marine social‐ecological systems (MSES) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. This is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. We introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of MSES scenarios in a participatory context. The objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. The method starts from four perspectives: “fisheries management,” “ecosystem,” “ocean climate,” and “global context and governance” for which current status and recent trends are summarized. Contrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated... |
Tipo: Text |
Palavras-chave: Barents Sea; Future studies; Multiple perspectives; Participatory fisheries management; Storylines; Uncertainty. |
Ano: 2019 |
URL: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00485/59621/62647.pdf |
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Sgobbi, Alessandra; Carraro, Carlo. |
The objective of this paper is to investigate the usefulness of non-cooperative bargaining theory for the analysis of negotiations on water allocation and management. We explore the impacts of different economic incentives, a stochastic environment and varying individual preferences on players strategies and equilibrium outcomes through numerical simulations of a multilateral, multiple issues, non-cooperative bargaining model of water allocation in the Piave River Basin, in the North East of Italy. Players negotiate in an alternating-offer manner over the sharing of water resources (quantity and quality). Exogenous uncertainty over the size of the negotiated amount of water is introduced to capture the fact that water availability is not known with... |
Tipo: Working or Discussion Paper |
Palavras-chave: Bargaining; Non-Cooperative Game Theory; Simulation Models; Uncertainty; Environmental Economics and Policy; C61; C71; C78. |
Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/7446 |
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Nelitz, Marc A; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; mnelitz@essa.com; Beardmore, Ben; Beardmore Consulting LLC; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Alan.Beardmore@wisconsin.gov; Machtans, Craig S; Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada; Craig.Machtans@ec.gc.ca; Hall, Alexander W; ESSA Technologies Ltd.; ahall@essa.com; Wedeles, Chris; ArborVitae Environmental Services Ltd.; chris@avesltd.ca. |
Complexity and uncertainty are inherent in social-ecological systems. Although they can create challenges for scientists and decision makers, they cannot be a reason for delaying decision making. Two strategies have matured in recent decades to address these challenges. Systems thinking, as embodied by conceptual modeling, is a holistic approach in which a system can be better understood by examining it as a whole. Expert elicitation represents a second strategy that enables a greater diversity of inputs to understand complex systems. We explored the use of conceptual models and expert judgments to inform expansion of monitoring around oil sands development in northern Alberta, Canada, particularly related to migratory forest birds. This study area is a... |
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Complexity; Conceptual modeling; Expert judgment; Migratory birds; Oil sands; Uncertainty. |
Ano: 2015 |
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Balgah, Roland Azibo; Buchenrieder, Gertrud. |
Irving Fisher's theory on time preference in the 1930s arguably influenced the analysis of agents' current behavior with respect to future outcomes. By suggesting linear discount rates implying rational and self-interested motives of agents, Fisher substantiated neoclassical economic thinking. However, Fisher's notion of time preference, the choice between present and future enjoyment that actually integrates a psychological discounting component has not received similar attention in the scholarly literature. This paper aims at closing this gap. It empirically examines agent behavior under uncertain conditions culminating from natural shocks, and differentiates the psychic from the physical component. To empirically test Fisher's notion of time preference,... |
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Risks; Uncertainty; Agent behavior; Fisher; Time preference; Cameroon; Risk and Uncertainty. |
Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114214 |
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Isik, Murat; Yang, Wanhong. |
A real options model is developed to examine the determinants of farmer participation in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). This study contributes to the literature by developing a framework for ex post analysis of uncertainty and irreversibility. It extends the applications of real options models to analyze farmer participation in the CRP. The model incorporates land and owner attributes, and determines whether uncertainty and irreversibility affect the probability of participation. Option values play a significant role in farmer decisions to retire land by reducing the probability of participation. These results have implications for the design and implementation of conservation programs. |
Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Conservation; CRP; Farmer participation; Land rental payments; Option values; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31113 |
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Bijlsma, Rianne M.; University of Twente, The Netherlands; Deltares, The Netherlands; r.m.bijlsma@alumnus.utwente.nl; Bots, Pieter W. G.; Cemagref (UMR G-EAU); University of Delft, The Netherlands; p.w.g.bots@tudelft.nl; Wolters, Henk A.; Deltares, The Netherlands; henk.wolters@deltares.nl; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; University of Twente, The Netherlands; a.y.hoekstra@utwente.nl. |
Stakeholder participation is advocated widely, but there is little structured, empirical research into its influence on policy development. We aim to further the insight into the characteristics of participatory policy development by comparing it to expert-based policy development for the same case. We describe the process of problem framing and analysis, as well as the knowledge base used. We apply an uncertainty perspective to reveal differences between the approaches and speculate about possible explanations. We view policy development as a continuous handling of substantive uncertainty and process uncertainty, and investigate how the methods of handling uncertainty of actors influence the policy development. Our findings suggest that the wider frame... |
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Environmental policy; Framing; Participation; Policy development; Policy process; Stakeholder involvement; Uncertainty. |
Ano: 2011 |
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França,Elvis Joacir de; Fernandes,Elisabete A. De Nadai; Bacchi,Márcio Arruda; Saiki,Mitiko. |
Instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) is a measurement technique of high metrological level for the determination of chemical elements. In the context of BIOTA/FAPESP Program, leaves of trees have been evaluated by INAA for biomonitoring purposes of the Atlantic Forest. To assure the comparability of results in environmental studies, a leaf sample of Marlierea tomentosa (Myrtaceae family) showing the lowest concentrations of chemical elements was selected for the evaluation of analytical quality of the determination under unfavorable conditions. Nevertheless, the homogeneity of chemical concentrations of sample at the 95% of confidence level has been achieved and INAA has presented repeatability of 2% for the determination of Br, Co, Cs, Fe, K,... |
Tipo: Info:eu-repo/semantics/article |
Palavras-chave: Uncertainty; INAA; Jackknife; Bootstrap. |
Ano: 2006 |
URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1516-89132006000200016 |
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Devisscher, Tahia; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; Stockholm Environment Institute; tahia.devisscher@ouce.ox.ac.uk; Boyd, Emily; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading; Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies; emily.boyd@reading.ac.uk; Malhi, Yadvinder; Environmental Change Institute‬, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford; yadvinder.malhi@ouce.ox.ac.uk. |
Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging because of reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semistructured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the... |
Tipo: Peer-Reviewed Reports |
Palavras-chave: Adaptation; Climate change; Complexity; Scenario; Social-ecological system; Uncertainty; Wildfire risk. |
Ano: 2016 |
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Katranidis, Stelios D.; Kotakou, Christina A.. |
This paper examines the effects of decoupling policies on Greek cotton production. We estimate a system of cotton supply and input derived demand functions under the hypothesis that producers face uncertainty about prices. Using our estimation results we simulate the effects on cotton production under four alternative policy scenarios: the ‘Old’ CAP regime (i.e. the policy practiced until 2005), the Mid Term Review regime, a fully decoupled policy regime and a free trade-no policy scenario. Our results indicate that cotton production gradually decreases as more decoupled policies are adopted. Moreover, the fully decoupled payment is found to be non-production neutral since it indirectly affects producers’ decisions through the wealth effect. |
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: CAP; Decoupling; Uncertainty; Agricultural and Food Policy. |
Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44184 |
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Curtis, Kynda R.; Cowee, Margaret W.. |
This study investigates the value of local origin-labeling for a nonfood product by evaluating Nevada homeowner purchase propensity for “NevadaGrown” native plants for water-conserving residential landscaping. Homeowner survey results illustrate that homeowners may be willing to pay as much as a 14% premium for origin-certified native plants. WTP estimates are higher when uncertain responses are incorporated into the bidding structure. Preferences for local production and drought resistance in plants are the primary drivers of purchasing decisions in the absence of uncertain responses, while income levels and preferences for natural plant appearance additionally affect purchasing decisions when uncertainty is incorporated. |
Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Drought resistance; Native plants; Origin labeling; Uncertainty; Willingness to pay; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy. |
Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/61066 |
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Registros recuperados: 221 | |
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